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Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Handicapping NFL Underdogs 2008-2009

By www.nflchoice.com staff

Look, handicapping the NFL this season is going to take a little more tact than previous seasons.  Here, we are going to break down a few ground rules to get you through the first few weeks of capping the NFL 2008-2009 season.

First, you need to pay attention to some teams that can cover easily through the first half of the season before the oddsmakers take head.  Below are some teams that we feel may get solid underdog or small favorite value early on and mid way through the 2008-2009 NFL season.

Underrated Teams Not Noticed by the Oddsmakers:

1) Buffalo Bills - This team was a few 1-3 point losses from a playoff season last season led by no name quarterbacks.  Betting against the Bills last season was helter skelter and you can damn sure bet this season the oddsmakers will not adjust for the Bills, especially in the opening weeks.

2) Green Bay Packers - Look, just because Brett Favre may be out this season, does not mean this offense won't be productive.  Anyone with any football knowledge last season knows that Green Bay built their playoff run around their defense.  This season, the Packers return almost all of their starters on defense and will once again be a force in the North. The oddsmakers will likely give them some points due to their offensive questions with Aaron Rodgers at the beginning of the season.  So, the Packers may be good money early on.

3) Washington Redskins - They will get no respect rolling into the NFL season, even though they made the playoffs last year on an emotional roller-coaster.  The Skins still have some solid players returning and Jason Campbell keeps getting better.  look for the Skins to get no love from the oddsmakers early on. 

4) Houston Texans - The Texans had a surprising season last year, and expect this defense to step it up even more this season.  As the obvious #1 candidate for the bottom dwellers of the AFC South, look for the Texans to get value as the underdog on many occasions this year.  

5) Pittsburgh Steelers - While all the attention will be on the Browns, look for the Steelers to sneak in on some easy covers through the first half of the season.  The Ravens and the Bengals will most likely be non-factors in this conference and Big Ben will produce like always.  

6) Oakland Raiders - Last season, the Raiders had a bad season to most, but for them they made huge strides.  This season with Russell at the helm, look for the Raiders to have a legitimate shot at the wild-card.  That means the oddsmakers will not know what hit them through much of the season.  The Raiders will come in as heavy underdogs and cover most of their games.

7) Carolina Panthers - Look for the Panthers to have a better season as the entire coaching staff has their head on the line for the NFL season.  John Fox will have to win or go home and vets like Jake Dellhome, Julius Peppers, and Steve Smith will have to show up this season to right this franchise.  Look for some easy covers at home as the oddsmakers will undervalue the Panthers through much of the season.

8) KC Chiefs - The fact is the Chiefs have the right pieces on the coaching staff to make a push for a wild-card spot.  They still have L.J. and a group of young defensive startups that will look to prove their case during the 2008-2009 NFL season.  The only question surrounds the QB situation as tough decisions will need to be made off-season.  But, the Chiefs may get solid value as small underdogs or small favorites at home they can absolutely cover.

9) Arizona Cardinals - Last year was supposed to be their year, but it didn't work out.  But, to them they made huge strides.  Look for this offense to click with whoever starts whether its Matt Leinart or Kurt Warner.  This offense is loaded with playmakers from Anquon Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Edgerrin James, and a young tight end by the name of Leonard Pope.  Look for some easy covers at home in the desert early on.

10) Philly Eagles - The Eagles will make a statement this year as Donovan McNabb will look to right wrongs in Philly.  Their defense just keeps getting better and Reid will take much pressure off the veteran McNabb by instilling a tough defense that turns each game into a field position battle.  The Eagles will be looking at some close scores, so watch for the underdog play early on when they are on the road.  They can cover so point spreads from 3-6 points will be solid value.


We hope you have enjoyed our NFL 2008-2009 Underdog takes for the upcoming season.  Please visit our flagship website www.nflchoice.com for Football Investment Packages for the 2008-2009 season.  if your looking to profit on NFL and College Football, look no further thanwww.nflchoice.com.


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